Effect of the Homebuyer Tax Credit.

This morning the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales in July plunged 27.2%.

Not surprisingly, the end of the homebuyer tax credit caused these sales to fall off a cliff. People just didn't realize how high that cliff was.

In case there was any doubt that it made a difference, this chart from Waverly Advisors shades in the period of the tax credit. Home sales started rising immediately, and have fallen off immediately with the tax credit's expiration. The July numbers to the far right are the lowest in the last 10 years.

As we move away from the distortion that the tax credit caused, we expect sales to rebound to levels witnessed early in this decade, especially with mortgage rates at around 4%.